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, decline in manufacturing eased a little bit more than expected in november. joining us, chief european economist. ricar ricardo, thanks for joining us. so still a negative territory. what does this point to in terms of the economic decline for the fourth quarter? >> i think it's in line with the idea that real sgchlt dp will decline by at least 0.2%, possibly 0.3%. it will give us a negative entry point in 2013 when i expect an average growth of minus 0.2%. so still moderately recession territory. >> the german flash composite pmi 47.9, services 48, manufacturing 46.8, is germany -- we just saw the 0.2% print. is girl aermany going to have a negative contract? >> i'm looking for a contraction of minus 0.2. so only aed modest one. i expect activity will stabilize in q1 of next year, but obviously that requires a favorable external environment, meaning u.s. not going into this deep due to the fiscal cliff. and also signs of improvement in asia. >> meanwhile the french pmi says the survey there suggests a 0.7% gdp drop in quarter 4 for france. >> that seems quite large. we've seen in rece
say the central bank likely to hold off until after the federal reserve is due to meet. joining us for more is global chief officer of global equities. and head of japanese research at jpmorgan securities. i suppose the question is whether this contraction here in the third quarter will be followed by another one in the fourth. >> it looks quite likely. you've got bad news on exports continuing and you've got on on top of that now a contraction in public spending beginning to come through. the boost we got after the weak construction from the disaster, that's now bapeaking out. so public demand and economic demand likely to drag us. >> and how much is domestic relying on government support? >> the domestic private side is actually doing really differencely okay. one data point here, you find that mortgage lending is actually growing now for six or seven consecutive months and that shows you that they're opening their purse spritrings little bit. but overall you're really looking at slight contraction in the economy. >> what extra pressure does this put on the government and the ban
.1 million barrels a day. impact of hurricane sandy in the u.s., reduced, as well. crude oil supply dipped to a nine month low. so the demand being cut, patrick armstrong is where us, managing partner at investment managers. but that's clearly because of global weakness -- well, economic weakness in europe and hurricane impact. >> definitely. year over year, oil demand is up. we've had very weak economy in europe. not much growth in the united states. but i think that's the trend we'll be playing out for the next few years. >> oil 110 at the moment. is that a fair price? >> there's premium built in because of geopolitical risks. i think premium is probably justifiable. you look at wti at $23 discount to where breptd is. that's not sustainable in the long time, but given inventory levels, that will stay. >> do you keep your trade on oil? >> we have neutral position, but we're short the front month. respe respect. we make money by rolling the contracts the other way around. we're long oil in the 12 months forward rolling in to the 13th month and we end up with little more oil with that strat
Search Results 0 to 2 of about 3